HOUSTON, TEXAS – MARCH 14: Jabari Smith Jr. #10 of the Houston Rockets in action against the Washington Wizards during the second half at Toyota Center on March 14, 2024 in Houston, Texas.
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With the NBA season looming, fantasy players looking for an edge will always keep an eye out for forwards who will outperform expectations. Whether it’s a change of scenery or a new coach, many players could have an improved fortune-or perhaps that promising rookie may find himself in a starting role right away. Whichever the case may be, discovering these risers and sleepers at the forward position could be the difference between success and failure with your fantasy season.
In today’s article, we will take a look at three forwards on the rise and three sleepers to keep in mind.
Before we introduce our selections, an explanation of the difference between a ‘riser’ and a ‘sleeper’ is needed. A riser is a player who has already established himself but can be projected to create and perform at a higher standard. In most instances, a different environment with a new team is the biggest factor when projecting a player’s refreshed effectiveness. A sleeper might be a promising rookie who will contribute right away, or a guy who has been undervalued after disappointing in former seasons.
RISERS
Jalen Johnson enjoyed a breakout campaign with the Hawks in 2023-24.
Jabari Smith, Rockets
Smith has incrementally improved both as a shooter and defender over his first two years in the league. His rookie season was very underwhelming, but it’s easy to forget he was barely 19 years old when he was drafted. He’s now 21, and those added years of maturity will serve him well. We already saw glimpses of his enormous potential as the 2023-24 season winded down. Thanks to an improved perimeter shot, Smith registered double-digit totals in 20 of his final 25 games. While Houston’s youthful roster contains other viable breakout players, Smith’s length and shooting ability make him one of the most versatile in the squad, and he will deliver with 30 or more minutes on the floor every night.
Jalen Johnson, Hawks
You could classify Johnson’s 2022-23 season as his breakout year for the Duke product, but there are a couple of reasons to believe he could do even more in Atlanta. The Hawks traded Dejounte Murray away this offseason, opening up a massive hole in production that needs filled. He’s slotted in with the first team at the four, while the team is deep with wing players who will fight for minutes. His overall health is the primary concern, as Johnson was limited to 56 games played last season due to injury. If he can avoid the injury bug, Johnson should take a step forward from the 2023-24 campaign and have a career year.
Nikola Jovic, Heat
Jovic enters this season better positioned to lock down a starting job for the Heat than either of the aforementioned wings. After injuries prevented him from getting on the court for much of the first few months of his sophomore season, Jovic caught fire after the All-Star break and was a key player for the team down the stretch. Although Miami is stacked with fantasy talent, a consistent first-unit participation from Jovic should ensure an increased role in the offense and a rise in his production. The Serbian played well for his home country at the Olympics in Paris despite nursing an ankle sprain.
Sleepers
Raptors swingman RJ Barrett could be a sleeper pick at forward in fantasy
RJ Barrett, Raptors
We saw bits and pieces of what Barrett can do in another situation last season after he was traded to the Raptors. With Toronto’s roster construction going into this season, the sixth-year wing may be relied upon to lead the team in scoring. A slashing playmaker with a good mid-range shot, Barrett isn’t much of a threat on defense but can score in bunches when hot. There isn’t much reason for optimism regarding the Toronto playoff chances, but you can put the Raptors in a basket with bad teams like Portland and Detroit, who can put out some quality fantasy options in spite of their poor results. For that reason alone, Barrett is literally the definition of a sleeper candidate.
Tobias Harris, Pistons
After basically six seasons with the Sixers, Harris gets a change of scenery and gets to produce with Detroit right away. The Pistons are on the up and coming, with Harris’s veteran experience going to benefit this young, hungry squad. Harris averaged 17.6 points over the past five seasons in Philly and increased opportunity should provide him an ability to improve upon that number. Harris is a really, really good, multi-category player who can provide plenty of rebounds along with a floor-stretching perimeter shot. Harris may fly a bit under the radar in his new home.
Noah Clowney, Nets
Clowney was slow out of the gate last season, but his production exploded down the stretch, averaging 12.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks over the last two weeks of the season. The 6-foot-9 Alabama product seems like a perfect fit for Brooklyn as the Nets begin to inject youth into a roster packed with veterans. He needs more minutes to fully realize his potential, but if he can carve out a larger role, the sky’s the limit. Although he’s the riskiest sleeper of the group, Clowney has incredible upside and should be considered in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
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